Geopolitics is now setting the direction of the resources sector as much as supply and demand. This edition covers the forces moving gold, rare earths, copper and cobalt, alongside progress from junior companies advancing projects across five continents.
Gold: rate fears outweigh safe heaven demand
Gold has eased below US$4,100/oz. Hotter-than-expected US inflation data and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary have pushed markets to price in a likely rate increase in December. The US–Iran conflict is a key driver, keeping oil prices and inflation elevated.
This reverses the usual pattern. In past conflicts, gold rallied as a safe haven. Today, the inflation the conflict creates is raising interest rates, which reduces the appeal of a non-yielding asset like gold.
Junior gold companies are nonetheless pressing ahead.
ECR Minerals (Australia). ECR is targeting first gold from main production ore at its Maddens underground mine during November. The underground decline is advancing towards a level estimated to contain around 2,500 oz of gold on a 100% basis, with ECR holding a 50% joint venture interest. For a company focused on cash flow, the transition to production is the key milestone of the year.
First Class Metals (Canada). First Class Metals has identified two new zones of gold mineralisation along the Pettigrew trend at its Sunbeam property in Ontario, around 650 metres and 1,600 metres from the historic shafts. Grab samples returned up to 40 g/t gold, and no historical drilling has targeted these occurrences. The company has also secured a loan facility of up to £1 million to maintain exploration momentum, with drilling described as imminent.
China: a short reprieve on rare earths
China has extended its suspension of new rare earth export controls, but only until 10 January. The decision buys time ahead of President Trump’s expected meeting with President Xi at the APEC summit in Shenzhen later this month.
The stakes are high. China accounts for around 60% of mined magnet rare earths and 91% of refined output. These materials are essential to electric vehicles, wind turbines, defence systems and electronics.
A two-month extension, rather than a lasting agreement, signals that Beijing continues to treat rare earths as a negotiating lever. The outcome of the Trump–Xi meeting will be pivotal for Western manufacturers and for companies developing non-Chinese supply.
Chile: Codelco’s production scandal
Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer, has disclosed approximately 42,100 tonnes of overstated copper production across 2024 and 2025. The figure is preliminary, with audits ongoing, and the Chilean government is seeking the return of bonuses paid on the inflated numbers.
The disclosure damages confidence in Codelco’s recovery plan. Output is expected to end 2026 near 1.2 million tonnes, well below the 1.7 million tonnes once targeted.
For the wider market, the message is that global copper supply may be tighter than official figures suggested. With demand rising from electrification, data centres and defence, that strengthens the case for new copper projects outside the traditional producing regions.
DR Congo: crackdown on illegal mining
Authorities in the Democratic Republic of Congo have seized more than 500 trucks and thousands of tonnes of copper and cobalt in a crackdown on illegal mining. The action follows the suspension of a key mining regulator and the detention of hundreds of Chinese miners.
The DRC is the world’s largest cobalt producer and the second-largest copper producer. Enforcement on this scale adds uncertainty to battery and electrification supply chains, and highlights the regulatory risk of concentrated supply.
Brazil: Cadence Minerals moves into production
Cadence Minerals has confirmed that DEV Mineração has been granted the operating licence for the Azteca processing plant at the Amapá iron ore project in northern Brazil. The licence completes the preliminary, installation and operating licence sequence for the plant.
Production is starting at a reduced rate while access works and site preparation continue. An on-site XRF laboratory is expected to be operational by the end of November, which will allow feed and product grades to be measured within hours.
The milestone follows the completion of hot commissioning on 3 November, and marks the shift at Amapá from development into operations.
South Africa: URU Metals begins drilling at Zeb Nickel
URU Metals has commenced diamond drilling at its Zeb Nickel project in Limpopo Province. The initial programme comprises eight holes totalling approximately 3,850 metres, focused on nickel, copper and platinum group element (PGE) mineralisation in Zone 2.
Holes are being drilled in pairs from four pads, targeting both shallow and deeper parts of the zone. The aim is to gather the geological and assay data needed to support a maiden mineral resource estimate.
Nickel, copper and PGEs are all central to battery and clean-energy supply chains, giving the programme strategic relevance beyond the project itself.
United States: Quantum Helium stimulates Sagebrush-1
Quantum Helium has commenced a major fracture stimulation programme at its Sagebrush-1 helium well in Colorado, where it holds a 90% working interest. Specialist contractors, equipment and personnel have been deployed to site following months of engineering and preparation.
The larger-volume programme is designed to improve connectivity within the helium-bearing Leadville Formation. The objective is to achieve stronger, more sustainable gas flow rates and to assess the well’s commercial production potential.
Helium is essential to semiconductor manufacturing, medical imaging and aerospace, and secure domestic supply has become a growing priority for the United States.
The bigger picture
Critical minerals are now firmly a matter of national security. Governments are stockpiling, trade terms are being negotiated at head-of-state level, and supply from key producers carries more risk than headline figures suggest.
For junior companies, this environment creates opportunity. Projects outside China and outside the traditional concentrated supply regions are attracting greater strategic interest, from gold in Australia and Canada to iron ore in Brazil, nickel in South Africa and helium in the United States.
What to watch next:
- The Trump–Xi meeting at APEC and any lasting rare earth agreement before 10 January
- The Federal Reserve’s December decision and its effect on gold
- Final audit results on Codelco’s production figures
- First gold from ECR Minerals at Maddens and drill results from First Class Metals, URU Metals and Quantum Helium
